Tweaking Our Forecasts - August 20, 2019
We are tweaking our 2019 forecasts to reflect increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. We are maintaining our year-end fair value target on the S&P 500 of 3,000 as lower interest rates and inflation support higher valuations.
Takeaways on the Yield Curve Inversion - August 14, 2019
A closely watched point on the Treasury yield curve has fallen negative for the first time in this economic cycle.
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Yield Curve Inversion Raises Economic Questions, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as -2 basis points (-0.02%) in trading on August 14.
Riding the Wave...For Now - July 26, 2019
The S&P 500 Index is very close to our year-end target of 3,000. The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% year to date and, after first closing above our year-end fair value target range July 12, it now stands less than 1% from our target [Figure 1]. Now that we’ve reached our target, is it time to sell? Here we provide some context for our stock market forecast to help explain why we haven’t raised our fair value target or recommended investors reduce their equities allocations.
Stocks and Fed Rate Cuts - June 17, 2019
A potential rate cut may give stocks a lift. Stocks have benefited recently from increasing hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, pulling the S&P 500 Index back to within 2% of its record high set on April 30, as of June 14. On June 4 Fed Chair Jay Powell signaled a possible cut by saying “we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” and since then, as of Friday, June 14, 2019, the S&P 500 is up 5.4%.
Bull Market for Policy Uncertainty - June 10, 2019
Last week stocks enjoyed their best week since November 2018 despite rampant policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty remains high, particularly around trade, but you wouldn’t know it from last week’s stock market rally, which jumped 4.4% on increasing hopes for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.